In the ever-evolving world of fantasy football, predicting busts is an art that requires a keen eye and a healthy dose of skepticism. Today, we delve into the intriguing realm of fantasy football busts, specifically focusing on the 2026 season and the expert insights of Heath Cummings.
The Busts Conundrum
At its core, identifying busts is about challenging the consensus ADP (Average Draft Position). Cummings emphasizes that calling a player a bust doesn't imply they're a football dud; it's a strategic move to question their draft position. Take Kyle Pitts, for instance. While he's had his fair share of bust seasons, he's also a top-tier tight end. It's all about context and timing.
ADP: The Great Divider
The ADP, Cummings argues, is a fluid concept. In July, it can vary wildly depending on the draft platform. This variability is crucial, as it can significantly impact the players' perceived value and, consequently, their potential to bust. For Cummings, it's not just about the numbers; it's about understanding the nuances of each platform's ADP.
Running Back Risks: Irving and Hubbard
Let's start with Bucky Irving. Currently, he's ranked as the 21st running back on CBS, but Cummings has him at 62nd overall. Why the discrepancy? Irving's injury-plagued 2025 season and the emergence of Rachaad White and Sean Tucker as more effective rushers are key factors. Additionally, the arrival of Kenneth Gainwell could further diminish Irving's role.
Chuba Hubbard is another running back on Cummings' radar. Ranked 76th on CBS and 91st in his personal rankings, Hubbard's value is closely tied to the health and performance of Jonathon Brooks. If Brooks returns strong from his ACL tear, Hubbard's role could diminish, making him a risky pick at his current ADP.
Wide Receiver Watch: Jefferson and Brown
Justin Jefferson, the star wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, is a surprising entry on Cummings' bust list. With an ADP of 10, Jefferson is expected to be a top-tier pick. However, Cummings cautions against this, citing Kyler Murray's inconsistent performance and the potential impact of Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson on Jefferson's target share.
Similarly, Cummings expresses concern about drafting New England's wide receiver, Brown, in Round 2. At 29 years old and coming off an injury-plagued season, Brown's medical reports have raised eyebrows. Cummings suggests that Brown's target share might not be as high as expected, making him a risky proposition at his current ADP.
Tight End Troubles: McBride
Trey McBride, the tight end for the Arizona Cardinals, is another player on Cummings' bust radar. With a new offensive coordinator, Drew Petzig, who isn't as tight-end friendly, and the arrival of rookie quarterback Carson Beck, McBride's target share and production could take a hit. This, combined with the team's likely reduced pass attempts, makes McBride a risky pick at his current ADP.
Running Backs in Passing Offenses: Etienne and Williams
Both Etienne and Williams are running backs in pass-heavy offenses, which Cummings believes could limit their fantasy value. In the case of Etienne, the presence of Alvin Kamara, who is expected to remain with the Saints, could reduce Etienne's role in the passing game. Similarly, Williams, who had limited catches in the latter half of last season, might not be a reliable pick in Round 3.
Age and Opportunity: Montgomery and Evans
David Montgomery, the running back for the Houston Texans, is an interesting case. While he has a potential workhorse role, Cummings is skeptical due to the Texans' offensive struggles and Montgomery's age (29). Similarly, Evans, at 32 years old, is a risky pick in Round 5, especially considering his limited production in recent seasons.
Conclusion: A Strategic Approach
Identifying busts is an essential skill in fantasy football. It's about challenging the consensus, understanding the nuances of each player's situation, and making strategic decisions. As Cummings has demonstrated, it's not just about the numbers; it's about the context and the potential implications. So, as we head into the 2026 season, keep an eye on these players and remember: sometimes, the biggest risks can lead to the biggest rewards, or the biggest busts.
